Motivated Action Theory: a Formal Theory of Causal Reasoning

When we reason about change over time, causation provides an implicit preference: we prefer sequences of situations in which one situation leads causally to the next, rather than sequences in which one situation follows another at random and without causal connections. In this paper, we explore the problem of temporal reasoning—reasoning about change over time—and the crucial role that causation plays in our intuitions. We examine previous approaches to temporal reasoning, and their shortcomings, in light of this analysis. We propose a new system for causal reasoning, motivated action theory, which builds upon causation as a crucial preference criterion. Motivated action theory solves the traditional problems of both forward and backward reasoning, and additionally provides a basis for a new theory of explanation. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991 This report describes research done at the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Support for the work described in this paper was provided in part by Mitsubishi Electric Research Laboratories, Inc. Support for the laboratory's artificial intelligence research is provided in part by the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense under Office of Naval Research contract N00014-85-K-0124. artificial Intelligence Lab, MIT, Cambridge, MA. IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY. Appro*«!, fat pdAy mtem® JXetrfbofloft Oafaftid 19950125 148 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 ?s,-;..: reoor; v. our den tor :•■■•■> .:oi:i".tion .-■ ntorrr j:.on is fsiimaii'a :z -we" jJU'i.-nng jna maintaining the 'Jjui neeae-j md .:c~:..:etinq and re. ...s.n:; in ■ cüeaton ot ntormauon, including suggest urn lor r-jucing mis auj<-n SO ■' Oa-isllighwd/ Suite 1204. Arlington. /•". .v;02-43CV and to :'ie ()•' ■ •• 3' M . ■or o?sporse n.-luding the tune lor IPVIOWT'J instructions, sear.naiq evslinq ualc St in1.rrn.Hiun Si'n.j"o:>"svnents regarding mis burden estimate O' in ,. <. tni'r aspt leddquariers '»! i DILI'S. Lio-ctordie tor in tor motion Opera Hens .mil Kop^rts ! .■ I 'i nd lludjet 1' iperwor* Reduction Crofevt I0/C4-018Ö), Washingtn. i-j C .0M:3 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave ölank) 2. REPORT DATE December 1991 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED memorandum 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Motivated Action Theory: A Formal Theory of Causal Reasoning